With Toronto heading to the polls on Monday, October 26, new ward-level polling is offering a closer look at how the mayoral race between incumbent Olivia Chow and challenger Brad Bradford is unfolding across the city.
The latest figures from Canadian polling firm Forum Research, originally provided exclusively to blogTO, reveal significant differences in voter preferences from one neighbourhood to another.
While Chow leads Bradford in each of the seven wards covered by the published figures, the size of that lead varies considerably. In some areas, the candidates are separated by just a handful of percentage points, while elsewhere the gap is substantially wider.
Where the Candidates Stand
According to the Forum Research polling, here’s how voter support breaks down across the seven Toronto wards:
Close Contests in Several Neighbourhoods
Scarborough Southwest shows the smallest gap in the polling, with Chow at 50 per cent and Bradford at 47 per cent — a difference of just three percentage points.
The results are similarly close in Parkdale–High Park, where Chow registers 51 per cent support compared with Bradford’s 46 per cent. That’s a notable contrast to the 2023 mayoral by-election, when Chow finished 24 points ahead in the ward.
In York South–Weston, Chow holds a seven-point lead, with 51 per cent support against Bradford’s 44 per cent. The figures represent a considerable shift from 2023, when Chow received just under 30 per cent of the vote in the area.
These relatively narrow polling gaps highlight how differently the mayoral contest is unfolding across Toronto’s neighbourhoods.
Wider Gaps in Scarborough North and Toronto–Danforth
The largest gap among the surveyed wards appears in Scarborough North, where Chow registers 62 per cent support compared with Bradford’s 32 per cent.
In Toronto–Danforth, the figures stand at 60 per cent for Chow and 34 per cent for Bradford, while Toronto Centre records 58 per cent and 40 per cent respectively.
Perhaps one of the more interesting results comes from Beaches–East York, the ward Bradford has represented as a city councillor since 2018. Despite his established local presence, the poll records 60 per cent support for Chow compared with 37 per cent for Bradford.
City Council Races Are Also Drawing Attention
Beyond the mayoral contest, the research highlights several closely watched races for Toronto City Council.
In York South–Weston, Frances Nunziata, Daniel DiGiorgio and Chiara Padovani are all attracting support, while Nadia Guerrera and Diana Chan McNally are closely matched in Parkdale–High Park.
Scarborough Southwest also has a competitive councillor race involving Parthi Kandavel and Kevin Rupasinghe.
Meanwhile, Forum Research reports that Shaun Chen leads Jamaal Myers by eight points in Scarborough North, while Sara Ehrhardt holds a substantial lead over Mary Fragedakis and Dianne Saxe in Toronto–Danforth.
What the Numbers Tell Us
The findings offer a snapshot of voter intentions ahead of election day, but polling results are not election results.
Forum Research gathered responses from adults aged 18 and older using a combination of automated telephone interviews and online panel surveys. As with any survey, sampling methods, undecided voters and potential polling error should be considered when interpreting the figures, particularly in wards where the differences are small.
With voting day approaching, the research underscores just how varied Toronto’s political landscape can be, even between neighbouring communities.
Toronto residents will have their say on Monday, October 26, when voters head to the polls to choose the city’s next mayor and local councillors.
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