Ontario’s winter is officially settling in, and the next three months are expected to bring a mix of near-normal and slightly warmer conditions across much of the province—at least according to Environment Canada’s latest seasonal forecast.
The agency released its new outlook for December 2025 through February 2026, offering a broad look at likely temperature trends (but not snowfall) across the country. While this doesn’t predict specific storms, it gives a probability-based view of how the winter may unfold.
Temperature Trends
Southern Ontario is expected to see a 30–40% chance of above-normal temperatures, with some pockets—like the Niagara Region—pushing closer to 40–50%. Still, most of the province is leaning toward near-normal winter temperatures overall. The chance of below-normal temperatures in the south sits at just 20–30%, while northern areas like Thunder Bay may see a 30–40% likelihood of colder-than-average conditions.
What About Snow?
Environment Canada doesn’t forecast snowfall in these seasonal updates, but the Old Farmer’s Almanac provides some insight.
December: Bitter cold is expected across southern Ontario, with the average temperature predicted to hover around -6°C (3°C below normal). Precipitation should reach around 50 mm—just under the usual 55 mm.
January: A more variable month, starting off freezing, warming slightly between Jan. 6–21, then dropping again after the 22nd. Temperatures are forecasted to average -6.5°C in the east (2°C below normal) and slightly warmer than normal in the west. Precipitation is expected to be just 40 mm, well below the typical 65 mm.
With early signs pointing to a somewhat milder winter—especially in southern Ontario—this could be a season of cold spells mixed with milder breaks, rather than a relentless deep freeze.
Get involved.
Sotheby's International Realty Canada, Brokerage. Sotheby's International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby's International Realty Affiliates, Inc. Each Office Is Independently Owned And Operated. Website designed and powered by 
. All Rights Reserved.